Battle of the Axioms

In politics some things are so consistently true they become axiomatic. In the coming election two axioms are going to be tested and one won't win out.

First axiom: In a down economy the candidate from the party of the President loses. Sure, it isn't fair, especially in that Congress has a much greater effect on the economy than does the President. It's interesting that the economy of the supposedly booming '90s was a result of Congressional fiscal policies beginning in 1994-when the Republicans took over. Also interesting is the fact that the current downturn occurred after 2006 when the Democrats took over Congress. In neither case was the President a driving factor. Still, the American psyche holds the President responsible for anything bad that happens, as though he has a magic wand he stubbornly refuses to wave. Therefore, John McCain has the burden of battling an axiomatic reality-something akin to swimming in glue.

Second axiom: America won't send an extremist to the White House. Lyndon Johnson successfully labeled Barry Goldwater an extremist and crushed him in the popular vote. Four years later Hubert Humphrey, who actually was an extremist, lost to Richard Nixon. In 1972 perhaps the most extreme leftists ever to run, George McGovern, suffered the most embarrassing electoral defeat in history (sort of sad to think how unnecessary the whole Watergate thing was). Ronald Reagan exposed the extremism of Walter Mondale. George H W Bush beat extremist Michael Dukakis handily.

Barack Obama is easily the most extreme leftist ever to be nominated by a major party. It's not easy to stand to the left of men like Walter Mondale and George McGovern but Obama manages it. In a normal election he gets crushed.

But this isn't a normal election. The economy is trending down, due primarily to a mortgage/credit crisis (thanks mainly to Republicans in Congress) and high fuel costs (thanks completely to Democrats). So, an extremist willing to say and do anything to get elected just might have a chance. Remember, in 1976 liberal Jimmy Carter used the tepid economy to hide his extremism and eked out a victory. He was so liberal even the Democratic Congress wouldn't follow his lead and his Presidency ended in failure and a near catastrophe for America.

Barack Obama is even more liberal than Carter and Congress is led by left wing extremists Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. If Axiom #1 wins out over Axiom #2 we could be in for a world of hurt.


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